Education
More IV / HV posts coming soon
please do check back occasionally.
Corporate Action around Earnings
Follow up to corporate Action - see KMI, in a similar situation last quarter
More IV / HV posts coming soon
Corporate Action around Earnings
Follow up to corporate Action - see KMI, in a similar situation last quarter
1.
Bernard | September 28, 2006 at 12:34 pm
Just want to check how come when we run the earning software, RHAT is not there?
2.
Benjamin Boyle | September 28, 2006 at 3:29 pm
Hi Bernard,
Please post a reply with your email address and phone number. I’d like to address your question personally and in full detail.
After I have seen your email, I’ll take it down so it’s not on public display for more than a few minutes.
For the others reading this, please do watch the BASIC tutorials, available not on this website but through the Help –> Video Tutorials menu on Trade Alert.
In the “stock requirements” section, the tutorials will show you about the date/time criteria and how to adjust them to see the stocks you want to see, depending on when they release their earnings announcment.
Bernard, RHAT did not specify whether it was releasing after market closes (amc) or before market opens (bmo). Therefore, it was releasing at an unknown time of day, and Trade Alert does not show these stocks by default. You must adjust your date/time settings as shown in the basic tutorials.
Don’t forget to post your contact details. By the way, my email address is clearly available on the Wealth Mentors “earnings scan” page.
My phone number in singapore is 6451 3076 (ports to my hand phone) and my skype id is benjaminboyle
Look forward to talking with you, and to seeing you make awesome profits. Let’s get everything sorted out now BEFORE earnings season is on us.
cheers / Ben
3.
Benjamin Boyle | September 29, 2006 at 1:26 pm
Got your details, thanks! Talk to you later
4.
Eow JS | October 16, 2006 at 2:19 pm
Hi Benjamin,
Notice that some of the candidate for this comming week the IV is lower than HV and they are highlighted in “Gold” colour. The candidate are BTU, ACI, GRP, and N. The extrame case are N, IV only 5.7% These candidate will not show any looses in “worse case IV” How would you comment in these candidates?
Regards,
Eow JS
5.
Benjamin Boyle | October 17, 2006 at 7:51 am
G’day Eow
I have not checked the stocks myself. The first thing I would do is tell you to read the following posts:
http://tradealert.wordpress.com/2006/01/01/corporate-action-and-earnings/, and
http://tradealert.wordpress.com/2006/01/04/vts-corporate-action-follow-up/
Assuming you have done so, my comments are as follow:
1. I wouldn’t trade N. Look up the news around the stock and you’ll find out why. I haven’t looked at the news myself, but the IV is telling you as plain as can be that there’s something wrong with the stock.
2. GRP doesn’t look suspicious to me, use 45% as your worst-case and do an analysis from there. Looks like there has been awesome, sustained uncertainty over the last couple of months. That IV HV uptrend will bend over and topple downward though, and we can’t say exactly when. Hence using 45%
3. ACI and BTU … would they be in the same industry? They both had their IV drop and their HV increase on the same day. I would be suspicious that another stock in their industry has released earnings already, and they have already had a sympathy move. I don’t know for sure, ‘cos I haven’t looked it up (that’s your job, hehe).
For an example of a sympathy move, use Trade Alert to look up the last earnings dates of these stocks: GS, BSC, LEH, and MS. Then look up their price charts around earnings time. See how GS was the first to release earnings, and all the stocks in the same sector jumped together with GS on the same day? The bank stocks that released in the following two days hardly had an earnings jump to speak of, because they had already jumped.
I wonder if ACI and BTU will be in a similar situation? Again, I haven’t looked at their news or charts ‘cos I’m busy. Get back to me with comments.
Great questions, glad you asked
Cheers / Ben
6.
Benjamin Boyle | October 17, 2006 at 7:54 am
By the way, if a stock is highlighted gold, it can be “tricking” you.
Possible reasons for a gold highlight are:
1. Stock is cheaper, and therefore won’t jump as far as it did in the past, and the options are therefore deceptively cheap.
2. IV is low due to other reasons telling the market makers not to expect the stock to jump.
That said, according to her latest newsletter, Mirriam made 20 earnings trades on the gold bars last quarter. 17 were winners, and 3 losers.
So don’t be too suspicious .. while understanding is great to have, complication is confusing.
Cheers / Ben